Market overview · August 26, 2026

EU-US trade in the second half of 2026: what to expect

A summary of the trends our database and public statistics reveal about the second half of the year, and what they mean for the Estonian exporter.

Three trends we are watching

First: supply-chain diversification continues, and Europe is the winner. US importers are adding European suppliers in categories where, just five years ago, Asia held a monopoly. Second: the average order is smaller and more frequent, because in a high-interest-rate environment nobody wants to tie up capital in inventory. This favours suppliers who can handle a flexible rhythm. Third: sustainability requirements are making their way into contracts even for mid-sized deals.

All three trends play to the advantage of a small, agile producer country like Estonia.

What this means in practice

Smaller and more frequent orders mean the threshold for trying a new supplier is lower than ever: the buyer does not have to commit to half a year's worth of inventory, a single container is enough. This is exactly the right moment to knock on the door.

Our database currently holds more than ten thousand active US importers across eleven categories, and that number grows every week. Every name there is someone's future customer. The only question is whose.

Could your product sell in the USA?The first consultation is free: we show the real import numbers for your category and a few sample buyers.

Through the end of the year

If you are planning to start exporting to the US, autumn is a good window: holiday-season orders are placed, buyers are planning the new year, and it pays to already be a familiar name for the January budget discussions. The first step is half an hour in our calendar, and it costs nothing.

Let's talk about your export plan

The first consultation is free: together we'll see who in the US already buys your product and how to reach them.