Market overview · January 9, 2026

2025 in review: five lessons from EU-US trade flows

Summing up the year's data, five clear lessons emerge that should shape every Estonian exporter's 2026 plan.

Lessons one through three

First: tariff noise was louder than its impact - flows adjusted in months, not years, and Europe's position in US procurement improved. Second: smaller and more frequent orders became the norm - suppliers who could keep a flexible rhythm won. Third: multi-sourcing shifted from the exception to the rule, which means the door for a new supplier is statistically more open than at any time in recent years.

All three trends favor a small and fast producer country: us.

Lessons four and five

Fourth: sustainability moved from marketing into contracts - certificates and traceability were increasingly a condition of the deal, not a bonus. Fifth: data-driven selling stood out clearly - in our clients' experience, precise targeting made a several-fold difference in response rates compared with hitting at random.

These are no longer forecasts; they are the measured results of the past year.

Could your product sell in the USA?The first consultation is free: we show the real import numbers for your category and a few sample buyers.

The 2026 focus

If 2025 was the year of adaptation, 2026 will be the year of consolidation: US buyers are locking new supply relationships into longer contracts. Those on the table in the first half of the year will secure their position for years. That is why we recommend starting now, not in the fall.

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The first consultation is free: together we'll see who in the US already buys your product and how to reach them.